Professor Jonathan Tonge says Andy Burnham’s expected bid to stand in the Makerfield by-election could create major tensions within Labour and reshape politics in Greater Manchester.
Jonathan Tonge, Professor of Politics at the University of Liverpool, says Andy Burnham’s move towards a return to Westminster has placed Labour in a difficult political position.
Speaking to Roch Valley Radio, Professor Tonge said Wes Streeting’s resignation from government had created an opening for Burnham to enter the contest.
He said: “Wes Streeting opened the door and Andy Burnham has rushed through that door by getting the potential seat of Makerfield.”
Professor Tonge `said Burnham remained one of Labour’s most popular political figures among members, MPs and sections of the public.
He said: “It would have been perverse for Labour to go ahead without the guy who most surveys show is the most popular amongst Labour Party members, MPs and amongst the electorate more broadly.”
Burnham confirmed on Wednesday evening that he will seek permission from Labour’s National Executive Committee to stand in the expected by-election.
In a statement, Burnham said: “I can confirm that I will be requesting the permission of the NEC to stand in the Makerfield by-election.”
Professor Tonge said the NEC now faced a politically risky decision over whether to allow Burnham to leave the Greater Manchester mayoralty.
He said: “Is the Labour Party going to block Andy Burnham for a second time? I rather doubt it. The optics of it would look terrible. It would open up a potential civil war within the Labour Party.”
Professor Tonge added: “It’s game on for Andy Burnham, assuming the NEC says, yes, you can stand, and then it’s over to the electors of Makerfield.”
He also warned Labour risks losing control of Greater Manchester if Burnham leaves the mayoral role.
Professor Tonge said: “There’s no guarantee that there’ll be another Labour Greater Manchester mayor.”
He added: “Reform and the Greens will be chomping at the bit for the Greater Manchester mayoral contest.”
Professor Tonge suggested Burnham’s personal support could help him outperform Labour in Makerfield despite recent Reform UK gains in similar areas.
He said: “I think there is a Burnham vote that is distinct from a Labour vote. If it was just an ordinary Labour candidate standing in the constituency, you’d back Reform. As Burnham is standing, you’d probably back Burnham.”
Burnham said his decision to seek a return to Parliament was driven by a belief that larger national reforms were needed.
He said: “Much bigger change is needed at a national level if everyday life is to be made more affordable again.”
Professor Tonge also described the circumstances around the expected by-election as highly unusual following Josh Simons’ decision to step aside.
He said: “I can’t recall a single case of a by-election being triggered in those circumstances where the sitting MP resigns and says, I want X to be my replacement. That’s extraordinary, unprecedented.”
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