A leading political scientist has said an upcoming by-election could determine how Andy Burnham’s quarter-century in politics is remembered.
Mr Burnham marks 25 years in politics today, as on this day in 2001 he won the parliamentary seat of Leigh, with a majority of over 16,000, which would be a majority of dreams for any party winning in less than two weeks.
Professor Jon Tonge from the University of Liverpool said the by-election represented a pivotal moment in the Greater Manchester Mayor’s career.
Asked whether the June 18th poll could define those 25 years, Professor Tonge replied: "I think it does."
He said the stakes were significant for Mr Burnham and argued that a victory could quickly propel him back onto the national political stage.
"If he wins, then he will go to Westminster, launch a challenge, I suspect, against Keir Starmer sooner rather than later to get the whole business done with," Professor Tonge said.
"The chances are that he would win that challenge. He would get the 81 Labour MPs that he needs to allow that challenge. And then all the survey evidence suggests that he's ahead amongst Labour Party members."
Professor Tonge suggested the timetable for any leadership contest could move rapidly.
"It would be game on pretty quickly. It could even be done and dusted by the time of the Labour Party conference in Liverpool at the end of September."
He also outlined what he believed would be the consequences of defeat.
"If he loses, he'll be forever known as the guy who wanted to be Prime Minister, but managed to lose a constituency that Labour had held in its different forms for 120 years."
Professor Tonge described that scenario as "a humiliating end to Andy Burnham's ambitions" and said he would have to return to his role as Greater Manchester Mayor.
The political implications, he argued, extend beyond Labour.
"The stakes are huge for Keir Starmer as Prime Minister. The stakes are huge for Andy Burnham. The stakes are huge for Reform as well."
Professor Tonge said a Reform UK victory would strengthen Nigel Farage's argument that his party can win across the country.
"If Reform wins this seat, Reform can win almost anywhere. And Nigel Farage could make the case, look, I'm on course to be your next Prime Minister."
He added: "If Burnham can't stop reform, the question would be begged, well, who can then?"
Professor Tonge concluded by describing the scale of the contest.
"I know there's always a tendency to hype up by elections in our patch, but this is a biggie."
He added: "In effect, 80,000 electors in a single constituency will shape, as a minimum, who our next Prime Minister is likely to be."
Listen to this clip of Professor Jon Tonge talking about Burnham's 25 years in politics:
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