Andy Burnham block could shape Labour’s future, says political expert

Monday, 26 January 2026 18:03

By Adam Clark

Labour’s decision to prevent Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election could have serious national consequences, according to a leading political academic.

Professor Jonathan Tonge, Professor of Politics at the University of Liverpool, told Roch Valley Radio the move by Labour’s National Executive Committee was driven less by cost and more by internal party threat management.

Speaking after what he described as an extraordinary weekend in politics, Professor Tonge said Mr Burnham’s attempted entry into the contest was halted within 24 hours because party leader Sir Keir Starmer viewed him as a potential rival.

He said public arguments about the cost of a mayoral by-election did not stand up to scrutiny. Estimates of around £4.7 million for a Greater Manchester mayoral contest amounted to roughly £2.25 per elector, compared with an average of £128 per household paid annually for the mayoralty itself.

Professor Tonge said this made it difficult to argue that financial concerns were the real reason for blocking the move.

Mr Burnham announced his interest in the seat following the resignation of Andrew Gwynne last week. Professor Tonge said parliamentary vacancies in Greater Manchester were rare, making the opportunity a logical one for the mayor, who has strong local recognition across the region.

He said Andy Burnham would likely have been Labour’s strongest candidate to retain the seat. If Labour now holds Gorton and Denton without him, Sir Keir Starmer will be seen as having made the right call. If Labour loses, responsibility will fall squarely on the party leadership.

Professor Tonge said the by-election carried unusual weight because Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership could be destabilised by a defeat. He added that the contest would come just weeks before local elections in May, where Labour needs momentum.

Reform UK and the Green Party have already signalled strong interest in the seat. Professor Tonge said the reaction of Labour supporters to the NEC decision would be a key factor.

It’s expected to take place on Thursday 26th February. A writ has been moved in Parliament for the by-election, which will have to be held between 21 and 27 working days from now.

Professor Tonge said a short campaign could work against Labour, as the fallout from the decision would still be fresh. He said attention would focus on how actively Andy Burnham campaigns for the eventual Labour candidate, and on the strength of opposition challengers, describing the contest as one where almost any outcome was possible, with national attention firmly fixed on Gorton and Denton in the weeks ahead.