UK weather: Met Office warns of increased likelihood of summer heatwave

The UK has just experienced a warm and dry spring, with England and Wales having their warmest spring on record, while several counties in the South East saw only one third of their average seasonal rainfall.

But what does the summer season have in store?

After last week's unprecedented heat, the first week of June is looking very different.

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Daytime temperatures will continue to drop over the next few days, becoming below average, perhaps some 15C to 20C lower than last week's peak.

The weather will be unsettled everywhere too, with showers or longer spells of rain.

Heavy downpours will bring the risk of hail and thunder, with localised flash flooding possible with any severe storms.

It will also become rather windy at times, with the potential for an unseasonably deep area of low pressure to bring strong winds on Saturday.

Through the second week of June, the wet weather will become increasingly confined to the northwest as high pressure is likely to have more of an influence.

From the middle of the month, it looks like the UK will see drier conditions, with temperatures expected to rise well above average.

Depending on the placement of high pressure, there's the chance for another period of hot conditions, especially in the south.

The Met Office issued their three-month summary on Monday, covering June, July and August - giving an insight into longer term weather trends.

The summary indicates an increased likelihood of a hot summer, with a greater chance of heatwaves - just as we expect with a warming climate.

That said, they mention it could be a wet season, but near average rainfall is the most likely scenario at this point.

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This summer also marks 50 years since the record-setting summer of 1976, often regarded as a benchmark for extreme British summers by the public.

The event is notable for its prolonged duration, intense heat and lack of rainfall, which created significant impacts and challenges for communities, infrastructure and the natural environment throughout the UK.

It still holds the record for the highest average summer maximum temperature, although recent years have seen exceptionally warm summers in terms of mean temperature (average maximum and minimum values) and extremes.

The top five years for mean temperature have all occurred within this century, with three of them in the last eight years.

While 2025 holds the record for the hottest summer on record, July 2022 claims the highest ever maximum, reaching 40.3C at Coningsby in Lincolnshire.

Summers that were once extreme, are becoming more common in our changing climate.

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