How to follow the election results - an expert guide

Because there is no overnight counting in Scotland and Wales, it will be English council results shaping the breakfast headlines on 8 May.

The circumstances that saw both main parties take heavy seat losses in the May 2025 county council elections continue.

Current polling shows a collapse in support for both Labour and the Conservatives, relative to 2021 and 2022 when most of the council seats up this time were last contested.

Council by-elections too show Labour defeated in almost four out of every five seats, with the Conservatives doing little better, losing two in three vacancies.

The main difference between last year and this is that Labour, more than the Conservatives, faces jeopardy. Labour in-fighting over recent months has tied these elections to Sir Keir Starmer's fate.

If the party's losses in seats and councils controlled can be kept to a minimum, then he survives. But if the worst forecasts are realised, with seat losses edging towards 2,000 and Labour-run councils for half a century fall, then the reaction will be frantic.

What will we know on Friday morning?

Forty-six of the 136 English councils declare overnight. These account for more than 1,200 seats, a quarter of the total, sufficient to give a picture of the winners and losers. Labour defends over 500 of these seats, 43% of the total.

If the seat tally by breakfast shows a net loss of 200 seats, that is better than expected. If we factor in another 100 losses, Labour has lost 60% of its seats - bad, but not yet a disaster.

If, by sunrise, Sky News' tracker edges towards minus 350 seats and beyond, then expect increased speculation about the occupant of Downing Street.

Sky News is collecting the results for every ward in every council. Our analysis considers the change in vote share since the previous election. We will show the direction of travel - is Labour losing more seats to the Greens than Reform? Are the Conservatives still losing to Reform?

Critically, by monitoring the size of majorities in seats held and lost by each party, Sky News will project the expected numbers of gains and losses once all the council results are in. These are the numbers that are vital in how the different parties react to the results.

As each council completes its count, Sky News will show how the latest result relates to the historical pattern - is this the worst result for a party? Is it the best for its opponents?

Small margins could see councils change hands

Thirty-four of the overnight councils are electing a fraction of their councillors, with 12 others choosing the whole council.

Don't be surprised if most of the councils in the first category continue with the same party in overall control simply because there are not enough seats to tip the balance.

Labour-controlled Halton is expected among the early declarers, as is Conservative-run Broxbourne. Neither council will change hands because the majorities cannot be overturned.

In the same way, Labour will not lose control of Chorley, Salford and Wigan, while Eastleigh will remain in Lib Dem hands. Instead, watch for seat gains and losses in these areas as indicators of the electoral mood.

But elsewhere, the margins are such that despite a fraction of seats being fought, a change of control may happen.

Exeter may be the first council that Labour loses - just three defeats with no gains are all it takes. Other Labour-run councils and the net losses required are Hartlepool (4), Redditch (5), Reading (8), Southampton (6) and, with an outside chance, Tameside (10) where electors that voted in Labour's Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election defeat are voting again.

There are eight metropolitan boroughs counting overnight, but only one, Newcastle upon Tyne, is electing the whole council. The main interest in boroughs, which tend to be dominated by Labour, will be the scale and direction of losses - are seats being lost to Reform, Greens, or perhaps Independents?

What could happen in London?

London voters are choosing all the seats in 32 boroughs, 10 of which declare overnight.

Labour controls half (Ealing, Hammersmith & Fulham, Merton, Wandsworth and Westminster). Wandsworth and Westminster were both captured from the Conservatives in 2022, but Labour's hold is precarious. Two defeats with no gains mean Labour loses Merton, where the threat comes from the Liberal Democrats.

Labour currently dominates London and is defending 232 of the 548 seats declaring overnight. The party currently holds 80% of the seats in Ealing, one of its safest London boroughs. A net loss of 22 seats to a variety of challengers means a loss of overall control; defeat in one of its strongest councils suggests that Labour is heading towards one of its worst-ever results.

The Conservatives are under threat too. In Bexley, where Reform may fancy its chances of gaining a London borough, and Kensington & Chelsea, party net losses cannot exceed seven and 10 seats respectively.

Two boroughs with Liberal Democrat majorities report overnight - Richmond and Sutton. Richmond is secure, but in Sutton a net loss of one seat would be critical. Results here will show the Green Party threat to incumbent Liberal Democrats, and the damage done to a Conservative recovery from Reform.

What the wins and losses will say about each party

The bulk of the remaining English councils are reporting results from Friday lunchtime. Keep an eye on the tally of gains and losses and council control.

If Labour's net losses pass 1,500 and 850 seats for the Conservatives, then both have had a bad result. How many of the more than 60 Labour councils have fallen?

Because Reform is likely to take seats off both these parties, it should head the list of gainers. A net gain of 650 seats is okay, but close to a thousand is much better. Beyond that, it begins to threaten the record for the number of gains at a single local election.

Green gains are expected but on a much smaller scale, but 400 more seats are good and over 500 are impressive.

From Thursday overnight, Sky News will be assessing the strength of each party's support translated into a National Equivalent Vote (NEV). Early results will give a projection of a final figure. The NEV estimates the state of the parties as though a national election had taken place. The addition of Friday declarations will give a clearer picture.

In 2025 the two main parties each received their lowest ever vote shares - Labour with 19% and Conservatives on 18%. Reform was first on 32%. Adding the Liberal Democrats and Greens into the mix will show how fragmented our party system has become.

SNP support is down - but it might not matter

Scotland and Wales declare on Friday afternoon. Nationalist parties have a good chance of topping the poll in both contests.

Scotland uses a mix of 73 constituency seats decided by first past the post, and 56 regional list seats, allocated proportionally. Some polls suggest that the SNP is on course to win 65 or more seats and an overall majority.

The party defends all but 10 of the constituency seats after boundary changes. Its aim is to target these while ensuring that it loses none of its own.

Labour's only constituency, Dumbarton, is among the targets, as are three Conservative seats. SNP support is down from where it was last time, but that might not matter.

With the Conservative vote likely impacted by Reform, the winner's vote share in these key constituency seats is likely to be lower than before. This could favour the SNP, and it might win outright without the benefit of any list seats.

Even if it falls short of a majority, the performance of the pro-independence Scottish Greens is likely to bring seats from the regional lists.

It is not until each of the constituencies has declared that we get to know how the list seats are divided. Parties that win many constituencies, like the SNP, will receive few, if any, of these seats.

Labour could fall to third in Wales

The total number of seats in the Welsh Senedd increases from 60 to 96. The voting system has changed too. Now, seats will be allocated proportionately in 16 constituencies, each created by merging the boundaries of two Westminster parliament constituencies. There are six seats for each constituency. It is difficult for a single party to win 49 seats and an overall majority.

Wales has been a Labour stronghold for over a century, but the latest polling suggests the party's vote is about half what it was last time the Senedd was elected. It might fall into third place.

The Conservatives too are on course for a setback. Plaid Cymru and Reform are likely to be the big gainers, but the race to be the largest party is close and could be determined by the last of the constituencies to declare.

As results from England, Scotland and Wales are still being declared, the narrative about their meaning and interpretation will gather pace. The stakes are huge, affecting the Westminster government itself as well as the future governance of Scotland and Wales.

The two main parties that have dominated national politics for so long may see another chapter written about their joint demise. Meanwhile, the winners will be clamouring for our attention, keen to show that their performance is the best.

(c) Sky News 2026: How to follow the election results - an expert guide