Championship play-off final: Hull City have defied data and logic this season as they stand one win away from the Premier League

Amid the drama of 'Spygate', it's worth remembering that Hull City are in this Championship play-off final too. They have been in it this whole time.

The Tigers also have a sensational story in this Championship promotion race. This time last year, they were one game away from dropping to League One. A year later - and they're one game from the Premier League.

They have gone from surviving in the Championship on goal difference last season to becoming the first sixth-placed team to reach the play-off final since 2019.

And a deeper look into Hull's season shows this team are defying logic, not just recent history.

• Spygate: Follow all the latest updates here
• WATCH: How alleged Saints 'Spygate' incident unfolded

If matches were decided by Expected Goals (xG), a dataset right at the heart of the modern game, then it would tell a different story of Hull's season.

Hull should, according to the data, have finished second-bottom this term. The relegation they nearly faced last season should have happened. Instead, they are close to being promoted.

The numbers are staggering. Hull should have picked up 13 fewer points than they actually did - and should have conceded around 16 more goals.

Why do these numbers exist? Well normally, you put it down to a strong defensive structure or an impressive goalkeeper. Except they don't. They've actually been one of the leakiest teams in the Championship.

Hull conceded 66 goals in the regular season. That's seven more than Oxford United who were relegated. Only three teams in the bottom half of the table - Leicester, QPR and Wednesday - conceded more goals than Hull, who also conceded the second-highest number of shots on target in the division.

And as for the 16 additional goals Hull should have conceded, their first-choice goalkeeper Ivor Pandur is responsible for stopping around five goals. His save percentage of 69.2 per cent is not even among the top 10 Championship goalkeepers this season.

Instead, Hull have benefitted from several large slices of luck at the back. There is a long highlights reel of missed chances by Hull's opponents this season.

Take Hull's 2-0 win over play-off rivals Wrexham in December. Kieffer Moore missed two golden chances to equalise which totalled around 0.9 xG. But Hull kept a clean sheet that day.

In the 1-1 draw with Oxford United in April, Hull nearly lost it in stoppage time but Mark Harris put a close-range chance wide when played through. In the 1-0 win over West Brom, the Baggies missed an open goal to take the lead themselves, as Isaac Price blazed over.

The Championship's top scorer Zan Vipotnik also missed an own goal at Hull as Swansea lost 2-1 to the Tigers in January. The same thing happened to Norwich's Josh Sargent who missed a sitter when drawing 0-0 at Hull in November. The Tigers went onto win 2-0 instead.

Overall, Hull have statistically had the most good fortune in the Championship this season in terms of opposition wastefulness.

This season, opponents have not converted 10 chances where they've had at least 50 per cent chance of scoring - the most let-offs of its kind for any team in the division.

Out of those 10 chances, four of them had a 70 per cent chance of scoring - that's double the next-best teams in the list.

But of course, it is not just luck that has propelled Hull towards the Premier League, there is a great deal of efficiency at the other end too.

While Hull's opponents waste their chances, the Tigers have the best shot conversion rate in the division. And they have to Oli McBurnie and Joe Gelhardt to thank for a lot of that firepower.

With 17 and 15 league goals to their name respectively, McBurinie and Gelhardt are two of the most accurate strikers in the league.

They rank first and second in the Championship for shots on target - even though all of the other forwards in the top 10 in that category have managed more shots.

"I think it's one thing we pride ourselves on is being clinical and being ruthless when we have chances," McBurnie tells Sky Sports.

"One thing as well we have the lads that create such good chances for us. I think a lot of the positions that we get ourselves in are going to be goals a lot more often than not.

"People like to speak about data and stuff, but points is the only data that matters to us and we've got to ride on that."

But then again, luck came to Hull's rescue on the final day when McBurnie's goal to take them into the play-offs at Wrexham's expense had dubious offside calls attached to it.

According to the PGMO, McBurnie was onside by centimetres - but it was another example of the fine margins going the Tigers' way when it so easily could have gone in the opposite direction.

There is another theory as to why Hull are defying the data. The statistical side of the game is used to help predict, prepare and plan for certain outcomes. But the Tigers have proved to be unpredictable this season under the stewardship of Sergej Jakirovic.

"He's a winner, that's the best thing I can say about him," McBurnie added. "He'll win by any means necessary. If that means changing the game after 15, 20 minutes because something isn't working, he's not stubborn like a lot of managers are - without it being his way or the highway.

"If he can recognise in a game that changing to a back four or to a back five will impact us, he'll do it straight away with ruthlessness. It's been one of the reasons why we've been so successful this season."

A lot has been made about Hull's role to play in the 'Spygate' drama - especially when it comes to preparing for the game.

It has been claimed that the spying saga has been unfair on Hull - as they've had to spend this period preparing to face two teams, while Middlesbrough have spent this week doing tactical analysis on just one club.

But that unpredictability from Jakirovic gives a trump card. The Tigers can easily spring a completely different tactical plan from the two play-off semi-finals.

Quite simply, they're a team worth spying on.

"There's a difficulty to prepare for us," adds McBurnie. "We don't set up the same way after two games in a row. We'll change mid-game, it's got to be a difficult team to prepare for.

"I think from that point of view it's a testament to the manager and his staff that they're not stubborn and they will do anything to help us."

So whether you feel Hull are lucky or efficient, it really doesn't matter. They still stand a chance at Premier League promotion either way.

Watch Middlesbrough vs Hull City in the Championship play-off final this Saturday, live on Sky Sports from 2.30pm, kick-off 3.30pm

(c) Sky Sports 2026: Championship play-off final: Hull City have defied data and logic this season as they stand one win away from the Premier League